Visible Alpha

Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 4 brokers · 319 line items · freshest revision 2026-06-09.

Broker Models

Copart's broker models show a business pausing, not stalling. The four models have revenue essentially flat in FY-2026 as unit volume growth turns to -5.8% and price per car climbs 7.5%, then recovering to +4.8% growth in FY-2027 as international services and mix take over. Operating margin holds near 37%, and services generate almost all of the profit. Coverage is thin — four brokers at most, and the volume-versus-price split rests on a single model.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Revenue flat-lines in FY-2026, then recovers on services

The consensus path is a one-year pause. Total revenue is modeled essentially unchanged in FY-2026 (-0.2%) before growth resumes at +4.8% in FY-2027 and +6.8% into FY-2028. Services — roughly six-sevenths of the top line — do the work: service revenue grows +4.9% in FY-2027 while lower-margin vehicle sales stay a thin sliver of the mix.

Source: derived from vendor data.

FY-2028 rests on a single model, so read the final bar as one analyst's extrapolation rather than consensus.

Price is doing the work while volume falls

The mechanism behind the FY-2026 pause is the interesting part. The one broker who models unit economics has the number of salvage cars processed falling from 4.7 million to 4.4 million — volume growth of -5.8% — while revenue per car rises 7.5% to a little over 900 dollars. Price and mix, not throughput, carry service revenue through the soft year; volume barely recovers (+1%) in FY-2027.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Source: derived from vendor data.

International is the only region still growing

Geography sharpens the same story. On the two brokers who split services by region, US service revenue actually declines -2.1% in FY-2026 before a modest +3.3% rebound; international service revenue grows +9.7% then +11.1%. International is a small share of services but supplies most of the incremental growth over the forecast window.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Services are the entire profit engine

Vehicle sales are roughly a seventh of revenue but almost none of the profit — they are close to a pass-through, with the car cost re-billed to sellers. Service gross profit runs above two billion dollars a year against tens of millions from vehicles. That mix keeps blended gross margin near 45% and operating margin near 37%, both edging up about half a point in FY-2027.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Where the four models disagree

Consensus on the headline is tight; the real spread is in cash and the out-year. On FY-2027, free cash flow — modeled by only two brokers — ranges from about 1.0 to 1.3 billion dollars, a far wider band than revenue or operating income. Cash conversion, not the P&L, is the open question.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.